ChartingTheEconomy.Com

April 30, 2009

109 Metropolitan Areas Have an Unemployment Rate of 10%+

Filed under: Employment — admin @ 12:02 am

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The first chart shows the growth in the number of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) that have an unemployment rate of 10% or higher.  As of March there were a total of 109 MSAs with a 10% or greater unemployment rate (up from 104 in February).  The second chart shows the change over the past year in the number of MSAs with a 15% or higher unemployment rate.  Note that there are a total of 372 MSAs in the United States.

A few points:

1)  Almost a third of the MSAs in the United States have a 10% or greater unemployment rate.

2)  When you add in those individuals working part-time for economic reasons and those that want a job but have dropped out of the labor force the offical unemployment number roughly doubles.  Accordingly, the real unemployment rate (or the suffering index, as I refer to it) for almost a third of the MSAs in the U.S. is roughly 20% or higher.

3) The unemployment rates for March 2009 are higher than a year ago in all 372 MSAs.

Data Source:

> Bureau of Labor Statistics

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April 29, 2009

National Association of Realtors Spends $12.25 Million on Lobbying in Past Two Quarters

Filed under: Lobbying Report — admin @ 12:01 am

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has dramatically increased its lobbying expenditures (and influence) in Washington in the wake of the bursting of the housing bubble.  The first chart shows the lobbying expenditures of the NAR over the past five quarters.  As you can see the NAR has greatly ramped up its lobbying expenditures in the past couple of quarters.  The Q1′09 expenditures represent an increase of more than 82% over Q1′08 expenditures.  In the past two quarters the NAR has spent $12.25 million on lobbying in Washington.

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The purpose of the next two charts is to give some perspective on the amount of money the NAR is spending on lobbying.  The second chart shows how much the NAR spent per business day on lobbying during each of the past five quarters.  During the past couple of quarters on average the NAR has spent roughly $100,000 per business day on lobbying expenditures.  This is a mind numbing number.

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The third chart shows how much the NAR spent per member of Congress (the U.S. Congress has 535 voting members) during each of the past five quarters.  Since the beginning of 2008, the NAR has spent almost $43,000 per member of Congress on lobbying.  The NAR has spent some of this money lobbying other government agencies and officials, however, this chart gives an interesting perspective on just how much money the NAR is throwing around Washington.

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I would assume the NAR would justify their expenditures by saying it was (is) necessary to help educate public officals on the complex issues facing the nation during the housing crisis.  This is a ridiculous argument.  Having educational meetings with policy makers is important, but it doesn’t need to be an expensive process.  How do I know this?  Because I was a corporate lobbyist in Washington years ago.  I had many meetings on Capitol Hill, and it just doesn’t cost much.  How much does it cost to meet over a cup of coffee and exchange some ideas?  My expenses were always small (a few bucks).  As a former lobbyist it blows my mind to think of spending $100,000 every business day on expenses.  It would be work just trying to spend the money.

As far as having the NAR educating our public officals, that scares me too.  The forth chart (below) shows what the NAR was saying about housing during the past few years as the housing market was collapsing.  I took the quotes directly from the titles of NAR press releases.  Is this the organization that we want educating our public officals on how to fix the housing crisis?

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I have no problem with lobbying.  I think it serves an important part in the American political process.  The problem is the excessive amounts of money that have become commonplace in Washington lobbying circles.  Excessive levels of lobbying expenditures serve to distort politics and not to advance the political process.  On a positive note the disclosure and reporting on lobbying has become better.  The next step is to put controls in place on lobbying expenditures.

Note:  The lobbying expenditures covered in this report are from U.S. Congress disclosures (and cover just the federal government).  It should be noted that there are many state and local realtor associations in the U.S. that also lobby state and local officals.  Those expenditures are not included in this report.

Data Source:

U.S. Congress

Various National Association of Realtors Press Releases

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April 28, 2009

U.S. Homeowners’ Equity Hits a Record Low

Filed under: Housing and Land — admin @ 12:01 am

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This chart shows the steady decline in homeowners’ equity since 1980.  One of the more distrubing aspects of this chart is how homeowners’ equity during the housing bubble did not increase.  Given the massive run up in home prices during the bubble years you would have expected to see an increase in homeowners’ equity.  This was not the case.  Why?  First, because many existing homeowners were withdrawing equity with the use of home equity loans.  Second, many first-time homebuyers were using no-money down loans and other creative financing to purchase their first home.  The combination of these two trends lead to no significant increase in homeowners’ equity even as home prices soared in the bubble years.  This was a setup for greater declines in homeowners’ equity once the housing bubble burst.  As you can clearly see from this chart, homeowners’ equity has fallen off a cliff in recent years as the housing bubble burst.

Data Sources:

Various historical U.S. Federal Reserve Flow of Funds reports.

April 27, 2009

Housing - As Interest Rates Decline So Do Cash Purchases

Filed under: Housing and Land — admin @ 12:02 am

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The above chart shows the percentage of new homes that are purchased with cash vs. the 30-year, fixed-rate conventional mortgage, historically.  As interest rates decline so do cash purchases.  This is one small (but clear) example of how low interest rates helped fuel the housing bubble by promoting the use of more leverage.  I believe that speculative mortgages (Option ARMS, negative amortization loans) contributed more to the housing bubble than just low rates.  However, cheap money inevitabily causes people to take on more risk.  This chart gives some perspective on the effect of the Federal Reserve’s policy of cheap money on home financing.

Data Sources:

U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. Federal Reserve

Note:  The 30-year fixed mortgage rates use monthly data and are averaged on a quarterly basis.

April 24, 2009

New Homes Taking Longer to Sell, Prices Continue to Decline

Filed under: Housing and Land — admin @ 9:16 am

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The Census Bureau released its new home data for March 2009 this morning, and the above charts show the picture.  The first chart shows just how far new home sales have fallen.  For March 2009, new home sales were 356,000 units on a seasonally adjusted annual rate - down .6% from February.

The second chart shows the months’ of supply for new homes at the current sales rate.  For March 2009, the supply was 10.7 months which is slightly improved from the February supply of 11.2 months.  The chart also shows how elevated this rate is on a historical level.

The third chart shows how long new homes are sitting on the market from completion until they are sold.  The median number of months for sale since completion was 10.2 months in March 2009.  As the chart shows new homes are taking longer to sell then at any time on record.

The forth chart shows the median sale price for a new home.  The median sale price for a new home was $201,400 in March 2009.  This price was down 3.5% from a month earlier and down over 12% from March 2008.

Data Source:

U.S. Census Bureau

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New Housing Units Completed

Filed under: Housing and Land — admin @ 12:01 am

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New housing units completed for March 2009, were 824,000 at an annual rate and seasonally adjusted.  This represents a slight bounce off of the January 2009 lows of 773,000 units.  Later today I will have a post on new home sales, and we can see the comparison with this newly completed inventory.

Data Source:

U.S. Census Bureau

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April 23, 2009

New Housing Permits and Starts - How Low Can They Go?

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 12:02 am

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The first chart shows a historical view of the number of new houses permitted by month.  Seasonally adjusted, at an annual rate, new housing permits were 513,000 units.  This represents a record low reading.

The second chart shows a historical view of new housing starts.  Seasonally adjusted, at an annual rate, new housing starts for March 2009 were at 510,000 units.  This was the second lowest reading on record (Jan. 2009 was slightly lower at 488,000 units).  March new housing starts were down sharply from February by 62,000 units.

The first thing I notice from the above charts is that, historically, housing permits and starts are volatile.  The boom and bust of past housing cycles is also apparent.  Furthermore, these charts give some historical perspective on the depth of the current housing crisis.

Check in tomorrow for a chart on new housing unit completions.  New housing sales data is also released tomorrow, and I will try to to get something out on that too.  It will be interesting to see recent data on units completed compared to units sold (given that inventories are already extremely high). 

Data Source:

U.S. Census Bureau

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April 22, 2009

Continued Weakness for Semiconductor Production

Filed under: Industrial Production — admin @ 7:20 am

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The above chart shows industrial production (factory output) over the past three years for communications equipment and semiconductors.  Production of communications equipment continued to hold up well throughout March (however a slight negative pattern has developed the last couple of months).

On a different note, industrial output for semiconductors continues to be in a very bad pattern.  Since my last post on this topic the numbers for prior months were also revised downward.  Why is this important?  Because semiconductors are widely considered a leading indicator of economic activity.

Data Source:
> U.S. Federal Reserve. G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.

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April 21, 2009

Q1′09 Lobbying Report - It Takes Money to Get Money!

Filed under: Lobbying Report — admin @ 12:28 pm

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NOTICE  TO  BAILOUT  RECIPIENTS:  THIS  IS  NOT  THE  WAY  YOU  PAY  US  BACK.

Note: Ford has not taken any bailout money.  I still think it is of interest to follow their lobbying efforts.

Data Source:

U.S. Congress

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Financial Industry Profits - A Historical View

Filed under: Corporate Profits — admin @ 12:01 am

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The above chart shows a historical view of the percentage of domestic corporate profits in the U.S. that come from the financial industry.  One look at this chart, and it is easy to see why the current financial crisis is having such a serious impact.  It is also clear from the chart that government allowed (encouraged) the dramatic expansion of the financial industry.  This historical view of the finanical industry’s profits shows a massive expansion of the industry’s influence in our economy and politics.  This type of expansion in profitability (for an entire industry) is not possible without a very favorable political and regulatory environment.   Over the past several years (until the recent collapse) the financial industry consistently produced 1/3 or more of the corporate profits in the U.S.  I think one industry controlling over 1/3 of domestic profits was both economically and politically unsustainable.  I believe a major part of what we are seeing in the current crisis is the reversal of this trend.  At least I hope - though it will continue to be painful.

Data Source:

> Bureau of Economic Analysis, Tables 6.16B, 6.16C, 6.16D

Note:  Corporate profits include inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

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April 20, 2009

1929-1932 Bear Market vs. Current Bear Market

Filed under: Equity Markets — admin @ 12:01 am

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Methodology:  This chart is based on the high close for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) at the start of each bear market.  Then the closing price for the DJIA on the first trading day of each subsequent month is used.  The 1929-1932 data ends with the closing price on the last day of that bear market (July 8, 1932, with the DJIA at 41.22).  The data for the current bear market is through the closing price for the DJIA on Friday 4/17/2009.  Dividends are not included.

Data Sources:

Dow Jones Indexes

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April 17, 2009

March 2009 Unemployment Rate - Eight States 10%+

Filed under: By State — admin @ 10:05 am

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Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the March unemployment numbers by state, and the picture is not pretty.  A few points to make:

1) Eight states (representing a quarter of the U.S. population) now have offical unemployment rates of 10% or higher.

2) California and North Carolina now have record high unemployment rates of 11.2% and 10.8%, respectively.

3) Only one state (North Dakota) reported an improvement in its unemployment rate compared to a month earlier.

Note that these are offical unemployment numbers.  Actual unemployment numbers are roughly twice these levels (based on national data) when part-time workers for economic reasons and workers that have dropped out of the labor force (but still want a job) are included.

Data Source:

Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Per Capita Portion of the National Debt ($)

Filed under: Federal Debt — admin @ 12:03 am

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The above chart shows the per capita portion of the national debt, and forecasts where it is headed under the Obama Administration’s budget plan.  The purpose of the chart is to personalize the national debt.  When we hear numbers like $10 trillion it is difficult to understand the magnitude of the problem.  I hope this chart brings some perspective to the issue.

Note:  I believe the actual per capita portion of the national debt will likely be higher than what this chart forecasts.  Why?  As I have said before the Obama Administration’s budget proposal, which this chart is based on, appears optimistic.  It forecasts only a slight recession for 2009 and  strong growth for the following decade.

Data Sources:
> Forecast data is from the Office of Management and Budget,  A New Era of Responsibility Renewing America’s Promise, Table S-9.
> U.S. Treasury, Treasury Direct
> U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table 2.1  Personal Income and Its Disposition
> U.S. Census Bureau population forecast

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April 16, 2009

U.S. Capacity Utilization Hits Record Low of 69.3% in March

Filed under: Industrial Production — admin @ 12:02 am

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Yesterday’s report from the Federal Reserve showed that capacity utilization for U.S. industry hit a record low of 69.3% in March.  The Fed’s calculation is based on the percentage of total industrial capacity being utilized.  This report is significant because it means there is more excess industrail capacity in the U.S. than at anytime on record.  In March U.S. industry was producing at just over 2/3 of it total potential.

Capacity utilization is considered a leading indicator of inflation and future capital spending.  So, this record low reading is an indicator that there is little inflationary pressure in the U.S. economy (at least now - I’m still concerned about the effects of U.S. deficit spending on long-term inflation).  It also indicates that industry has little need to spend capital to increase production (even if demand picks up).

Data source:

U.S. Federal Reserve

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April 15, 2009

104 Metropolitan Areas Have a 10%+ Unemployment Rate

Filed under: Employment — admin @ 12:02 am

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The first chart shows the growth in the number of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) that have an unemployment rate of 10% or higher.  As of February there were a total of 104 MSAs with a 10% or greater unemployment rate.  The second chart shows the change over the past year in the number of MSAs with a 15% or higher unemployment rate.  Note that there are a total of 372 MSAs in the United States.

A few points:

1)  Almost a third of the MSAs in the United States have a 10% or greater unemployment rate.

2)  When you add in those individuals working part-time for economic reasons and those that want a job but have dropped out of the labor force the offical unemployment number roughly doubles.  Accordingly, the real unemployment rate (or the suffering index, as I refer to it) for almost a third of the MSAs in the U.S. is roughly 20% or higher.

3)  When the March data is released in a couple of weeks I expect the numbers in the above charts to increase.

Data Source:

> Bureau of Labor Statistics

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