The above chart shows the worst 25 job markets in the U.S. as measured by the unemployment rate in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The data is as of February 2009 (the most current information available). Nine of the worst 10 job markets are in California. It seems to me that a large portion of California is in a depression (based on employment). This chart represents offical unemployment numbers. When you add in the underemployed and those that have dropped out of the labor force (but want a job) the unemployment numbers roughly double (based on national calculations).
Data Source:
> Bureau of Labor Statistics
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The above chart shows the top 25 job markets in the U.S. as measured by the unemployment rate in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The data is as of February 2009 (the most current information available for MSAs). A couple observations: 1) Louisiana and Iowa both have four MSAs in the top 25, and 2) many of the top 25 MSAs are large college towns. Employment in all of these MSAs is faring significantly better than the national average. The current national unemployment rate is 8.5%.
Check back tomorrow to see the worst 25 job markets.
Data Source:
> Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Auto Inventories for February 2009 were 5.1 months of supply which represents a slight improvement from the record high set in January 2009. However, February auto inventories remain at extremely elevated levels and are over twice the long term average of 2.5 months of supply.
Data Source:
> U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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The U.S. has the lowest life expectancy and healthy life expectancy of the eight nations represented in the above charts. As you can see from my past several posts the U.S. also dramatically outspends these nations on health care. What are we getting for all the money we spend on health care? Not longer or healthier lives.
Health care is a complex issue and I don’t have all the answers. I believe that throwing more money at the issue is not the fix for the U.S. health care system. In the U.S. we already outspend all other developed countries on health care, and we don’t live longer or healthier lives. First and foremost, any fix to our health care system must focus on reducing waste, eliminating unnecessary procedures, and cutting administrative costs. If we don’t, the U.S. is on its way to becoming a healthcare state.
Essentially, the current path of the U.S. health care system is not sustainable. This is obvious from just looking at projections for the next decade. The long-term unfunded liabilities of medicare and medicaid are even worse (maybe the biggest issue the U.S. faces), but that is a topic for another post. We have great doctors, hospitals, and medicine in the U.S., but they are becoming increasingly unaffordable (and we don’t live longer and healthier lives because of it).
Data Source:
> World Health Organization. World Health Statistics 2008, Part 2: Global health indicators. Life expectancy data is for 2006 and healthy life expectancy data is for 2003 (the lastest WHO numbers).
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The above charts show that the U.S. is not necessarily healthier than these other seven developed countries. We have the highest infant and adult mortality rates of these nations. Meanwhile, we substantially outspend them on health care (as the prior posts show). To me this points to large inefficiencies and waste in the U.S. health care system. More tomorrow.
Data Source:
> World Health Organization. World Health Statistics 2008, Part 2: Global health indicators.
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The first chart shows U.S. health care expenditures as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) compared to seven other developed nations. The second chart shows historical and projected U.S. health care expenditures as a percentage of GDP. If you also read the prior two posts, you can see that a lack of spending is not an issue with U.S. health care. On a per person basis and as a percentage of GDP the U.S. dramatically outspends other nations. The next two posts will show if we are healthier because of it.
Data Source:
> World Health Organization. World Health Statistics 2008, Part 2: Global health indicators.
> Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. National Health Expenditure Accounts - Historical, Table 1: National Health Expenditures Aggregate, Per Capita Amounts, Percent Distribution, and Average Annual Percent Growth, by Source of Funds: Selected Calendar Years 1960-2007.
> Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. National Health Expenditure Accounts - Projected, Table 1: National Health Expenditures; Aggregate and Per Capita Amounts, Percent Distribution, and Average Annual Percent Growth, by Source of Funds: Calendar Years 2003-2018.
> Note: The first chart represents 2006 spending (the latest World Health Organization data). WHO also has a slightly lower number for U.S. expenditures on health care as a % of GDP than does the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
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The first chart compares the per capita expenditures on health care in the U.S. with that of seven foreign nations. As you can see the U.S. dramatically outspends these nations on a per person basis. The second chart shows how per capita expenditures on health care in the U.S. have increased over time. The second chart also gives projections on where the per capita health care expenditures are headed over the next decade. Check in tomorrow to see similar charts that compare health care spending as a percentage of gross domestic product.
Data Source:
> World Health Organization. World Health Statistics 2008, Part 2: Global health indicators.
> Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. National Health Expenditure Accounts - Historical, Table 1: National Health Expenditures Aggregate, Per Capita Amounts, Percent Distribution, and Average Annual Percent Growth, by Source of Funds: Selected Calendar Years 1960-2007.
> Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. National Health Expenditure Accounts - Projected, Table 1: National Health Expenditures; Aggregate and Per Capita Amounts, Percent Distribution, and Average Annual Percent Growth, by Source of Funds: Calendar Years 2003-2018.
Note: The first chart represents 2006 spending (the latest World Health Organization data). WHO also has a slightly lower number for U.S. per capita expenditures on health care than does the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
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These two charts show how health care expenditures are paid in the U.S. The first chart shows the percentage of U.S. health care expenditures that are paid for with public (government) money and with private money. This chart also shows how the percentages have changed over time and gives projections on how the split will look in coming years. In 1960 the government paid about 25% of health care expenditures in the U.S. By 2018 it is projected to pay more than half. We can debate socialized medicine all we want in the U.S. Meanwhile, we are slowly moving in that direction.
The second chart gives more detail on who pays the U.S. health care expenditures. As you can see the majority of expenditures are paid by the federal government (mostly Medicare and Medicaid) and by private insurance.
Data Source:
> Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. National Health Expenditure Accounts - Historical, Table 1: National Health Expenditures Aggregate, Per Capita Amounts, Percent Distribution, and Average Annual Percent Growth, by Source of Funds: Selected Calendar Years 1960-2007.
> Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. National Health Expenditure Accounts - Projected, Table 1: National Health Expenditures; Aggregate and Per Capita Amounts, Percent Distribution, and Average Annual Percent Growth, by Source of Funds: Calendar Years 2003-2018.
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The March employment numbers were released today, and the picture worsened sharply. The unemployment rate increased to 8.5% and the suffering rate to 17.4%. My calculation of the suffering rate includes: 1) the unemployed, 2) part-time workers for economic reasons, and 3) those that want a job but dropped out of the labor force. It is shown as a percentage of the total labor force plus those that want a job but are not included in the labor force. Using the suffering rate there were 27.7 million Americans unemployed and underemployed in March 2009.
The series of charts on health care will continue on Monday.
Data Source:
> Bureau of Labor Statistics
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This is the first in a six part series on health care. The top chart shows the total U.S. expeditures on health care for given years. The bottom chart shows how the increase in the cost of medical care in the U.S. compares to the increase in the overall consumer price index (CPI). As you can see on both an absolute and relative basis, health care costs have increased dramatically in the U.S. over the past few decades.
> Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. National Health Expenditure Accounts - Historical, Table 1: National Health Expenditures Aggregate, Per Capita Amounts, Percent Distribution, and Average Annual Percent Growth, by Source of Funds: Selected Calendar Years 1960-2007.
> Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. National Health Expenditure Accounts - Projected, Table 1: National Health Expenditures; Aggregate and Per Capita Amounts, Percent Distribution, and Average Annual Percent Growth, by Source of Funds: Calendar Years 2003-2018.
> CPI and medical care price increase data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS uses the term “medical care” instead of “health care.”
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The above chart shows a historical view of the fed funds rate. As you can see the rate is at a record low. The fed funds rate is basically the rate at which banks lend overnight money to one another. It is also a primary tool that the Federal Reserve (Fed) uses to influence economic growth, the money supply, and inflation. Currently, the fed funds rate is at full throttle. However, we are all well aware the economic engine is still sputtering.
Data Source:
> U.S. Federal Reserve. H.15 Selected Interest Rates.
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The above charts show the spread in basis points between Aaa (highest rating) and Baa (low investment grade) rated corporate bonds. The first charts shows that the current spread is very wide relative to historical levels. The second charts shows a more detailed view of what has happened with this spread during the current economic crisis. The wider the spread the greater the perceived risk between high rated and lower rated corporate bonds. These charts provide a clear picture of the current stress in the corporate credit market. It also shows that investors are clearly concerned about increasing defaults on lower rated corporate debt.
Data Source:
> U.S. Federal Reserve. H.15 Selected Interest Rates. Moody’s yield on seasoned corporates. March 2009 data is for the first three weeks of the month.
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