Auto Inventories for February 2009 were 5.1 months of supply which represents a slight improvement from the record high set in January 2009. However, February auto inventories remain at extremely elevated levels and are over twice the long term average of 2.5 months of supply.
Data Source:
> U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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These numbers are a profound indication that people are not making major purchases. I would suspect “durable goods” would be similar, but those numbers I suspect are more difficult to breakdown into meaningful criteria, such as houshold appliances. I wonder what other metrics might be an indicator that the economy may be turning around or falling off another cliff? I have no idea what data may be available or how reliable it may be, but for near term indicators I have some ideas:
Use of electricity, commercial and or residential
Cement or Steel Industry - utlization, production numbers, employment levels
Mfg of Silicon Wafers and computer chips
Manufacturers of large electrical equipment - transformers, motors, electrical cable…
Comment by Brian Strain — April 13, 2009 @ 8:57 am
Thanks for the comment Brian, and the suggestions on other economic indicators to follow. I did a post on couple weeks ago on the industrial production of semicondutors and telecom equipment that you might find interesting. I’ll add your suggestions to my list.
Comment by admin — April 13, 2009 @ 9:26 am