U.S. Capacity Utilization for the motor vehicle and parts industry hit a record low of 37.3% in June 2009. In many ways this chart sums up what is happening in the U.S. auto industry. Just over a third of the industrial capacity in the U.S. motor vechile and parts industry was being utilized last month.
Data source:
U.S. Federal Reserve
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The above chart shows a historical view of the average expenditure per domestic and foreign car in the U.S. Americans are willing to pay substantially more for a foreign car. However, the gap between what is paid for a domestic car vs. a foreign car has been declining in that past few years.
Data source:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
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The above charts shows the average length of new car loans made by auto finance companies in the U.S. It now takes about 1 1/2 years longer to pay off a car loan than in the early 80’s, and about 2 1/2 years longer than in the early 70’s.
Data source:
U.S. Federal Reserve, G. 19 Consumer Credit
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The above chart takes data on total U.S. vehicle sales and splits it out between autos and trucks. What is very interesting is how the increase in truck sales since the early 1980’s can be seen as an analogy for the over-consumption of the past few decades. Truck sales look very similar to the debt chart (chart #2) and an inverse of the personal savings chart (chart #3) shown in this article: http://chartingtheeconomy.com/?page_id=56. Sales of bigger, less fuel efficient, often more expensive vehicles soared while auto sales were flat (to slightly down) since the early 80’s.
Data source:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
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The above chart shows the unemployment rate by state for June 2009. The 15 states with an unemployment rate above 10% are shown in red. Michigan has the highest unemployment rate in the country at 15.2%. Remember this is the offical unemployment data which understates the real unemployment picture. For example, the offical unemployment numbers don’t include individuals that the government believes have dropped out of the labor force (even if they still want a job), or persons working part time for economic reasons (the only type of work they can find). Most data I have seen on a national level would lead me to believe that an official unemployment rate between 10%-15% really means that at least 20% of the labor force is either unemployed or underemployed.
Data source:
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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This week the Federal Reserve reported that capacity utilization for U.S. industry hit another record low of 68% in June. The Fed’s capacity untilization calcuation is based on the percentage of total U.S. industrial capacity being utilized. This report means that there is more excess industrial capacity (as a percentage of the total) in the U.S. than at anytime on record.
Capacity Utilization is considered a leading indicator of inflation and future capital spending. This record low reading is an indicator that there is little inflationary pressure in the U.S. economy (at least now - I’m concerned about the effects of U.S. deficit spending on long-term inflation). This record amount of spare capacity also indicates that industry has little need to spend capital to increase production (even if demand picks up significantly).
Data source:
U.S. Federal Reserve
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Recently, a reader asked if I had any data on per capita income by state.
Data source:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/default.cfm?selTable=summary
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The above chart provides a historical view of U.S. vehicle sales. The data is seasonally adjusted at an annual rate. From November 2008 to May 2009, U.S. vehicle sales have been averaging about 10 million units at an annual rate. This is less than half the recent peak reached in 2005.
Data source:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
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The above chart shows that U.S. auto inventories in May 2009 improved from their recent record highs. However, auto inventories continue to be at a very elevated level.
Data source:
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Note: This data does not include truck sales.
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The above chart gives a histocial view of the major currencies dollar index. The Federal Reserve defines the major currencies index as “a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the U.S. dollar against a subset of currencies in the broad index that circulate widely outside the country of issue.” Basically, it shows the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies (lower index numbers indicate a weaker dollar).
Data source:
U.S. Federal Reserve report H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates (summary measures)
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The above chart shows each state unemployment insurance trust fund as a percentage of total wages in that state. The data is as of the end of the first quarter 2009. As you can see from yesterday’s post, as of the beginning of the third quarter of 2009, 15 states had loans from the federal government. So, it is obvious that the numbers in the above chart have declined significantly since the first quarter.
It is also worth noting that there is a very wide disparity between the health of the state trust funds.
Data source:
U.S. Department of Labor
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Each state administers its own unemployment insurance benefits program. Each state also has its own unemployment insurance trust fund, and some are in better shape than others. Above is a chart of the states that are now relying on loans from the Federal Unemployment Account to provide for continued unemployment benefits to the qualifing unemployed in their state. As of a year ago, only Michigan was borrowing from the Federal Unemployment Account. Total loans now amount to over $10 billion.
Data source:
U.S. Department of Labor, Employment & Training Administration
National Conference of State Legislatures
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The above chart is a total of all state unemployment insurance trust funds. Data for the second quarter is not yet out, and it will undoubtedly show another steep decline. Some states have already depleted their trust funds. Tomorrow, I will have a chart on states that have trust fund loans from the federal government.
Data source:
U.S. Department of Labor
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The above chart shows the average unemployment insurance benefit by state paid in May 2009. As you can see the average can vary significantly by state. Also, what is obvious is that the average benefit is not meant to be a wage replacement (far too low). Remember, unemployment benefits are considered taxable income too.
Data source:
U.S. Department of Labor
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This is the latest monthly update tracking the current bear market vs. 1929 - 1932.
Source data:
Dow Jones Indexes
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